AFL · ROUND 7 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun 26 Apr 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 37
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
Most likely: STK by 37
← STK by 60+drawWCE by 60+ →
Half the time: STK by 58 to STK by 169 times in 10: STK by 94 to WCE by 20
RESULT
STK by 101
HIT Actual margin 101 · 64.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | WR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 63% | 45% | 32% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 46% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 42% | 25% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 42% | 25% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 27% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Darcy Wilson | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 69% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 46% | 28% | 16% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 27% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Flynn | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | - |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |