AFL · ROUND 7 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Thu 23 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 4
WB to win, 55% chance
WB 55%45% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 66
MISS Actual margin 66 · 69.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Treloar | HFFR | 27.7 | - | - | 98% | 90% | 67% | 36% | 12% | 25.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.2 | - | - | 98% | 88% | 64% | 32% | 10% | 29.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 25.5 | - | - | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | 15.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.0 | - | - | 96% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 4% | 31.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.0 | - | - | 96% | 81% | 50% | 20% | 4% | 18.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 22.5 | - | - | 91% | 67% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 28.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 20.3 | - | - | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 19.0 | - | - | 78% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | HBFL | 17.1 | - | - | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.8 | - | - | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Oskar Baker | WL | 15.4 | - | - | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 14.2 | - | - | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 12.5 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Lachlan Smith | RK | 11.2 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | BPR | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 10.0 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 9.3 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McInerney | R | 24.4 | - | - | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | 24.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 23.1 | - | - | 92% | 71% | 36% | 11% | 2% | 22.0 |
| Chad Warner | CHF | 22.8 | - | - | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 20.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 22.8 | - | - | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 20.7 | - | - | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 19.0 | - | - | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 19.0 | - | - | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 18.3 | - | - | 74% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 16.8 | - | - | 65% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 16.3 | - | - | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| James Rowbottom | C | 16.0 | - | - | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 15.5 | - | - | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 15.0 | - | - | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| James Jordon | RR | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 11.2 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 11.2 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.8 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 10.0 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Logan McDonald | HFFL | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |