AFL · ROUND 8 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 20
ADE to win, 75% chance
ADE 75%25% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 18.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.5 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.1 | 13.4 to 31.5 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 29.0 | 84% | 53% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.6 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPL | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.7 | 6.7 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ben Keays | C | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 10.9 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.3 | 26.1 to 34.5 | 19.9 to 40.8 | 99% | 95% | 80% | 52% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.4 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.5 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.7 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 16.8 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 15.7 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 13.9 | 11.1 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.7 | 2.8 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.2 | 2.5 to 13.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.8 | 2.2 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |