AFL · ROUND 8 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 20
ADE to win, 75% chance
ADE 75%25% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 18.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| James Peatling | R | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 156 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 73 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Ben Keays | C | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 47 | 34 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| James Borlase | FB | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 103 | 88 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 55% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 93 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 88 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Willem Drew | R | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |