AFL · ROUND 8 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 20
ADE to win, 75% chance
ADE 75%25% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 18.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 76% | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 73% | 46% | 20% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 75% | 50% | 24% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |