AFL · ROUND 8 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 20
ADE to win, 75% chance
ADE 75%25% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 18.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Keays | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.5 | 2.6 to 12.2 | 87% | 79% | 68% | 55% | 42% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 6.9 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.6 | 84% | 75% | 63% | 49% | 36% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 28% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |