AFL · ROUND 8 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 20
ADE to win, 75% chance
ADE 75%25% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 1
HIT Actual margin 1 · 18.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | RR | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 82% | 71% | 56% | 41% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Keays | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.1 to 10.4 | 88% | 79% | 67% | 54% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPL | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |