AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v St Kilda
Sat 2 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 1
STK to win, 51% chance
CAR 49%51% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 38.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 28.4 | 24.4 to 32.5 | 18.3 to 38.6 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.8 | 15.4 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 19% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 23.0 | 19.3 to 26.7 | 13.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFL | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Adam Saad | BPR | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harry McKay | FPR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.1 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.2 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.4 | 2.6 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 29.8 | 25.6 to 33.9 | 19.4 to 40.1 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 49% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 29.5 | 25.4 to 33.7 | 19.2 to 39.9 | 99% | 93% | 76% | 47% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 26.2 | 22.2 to 30.1 | 16.4 to 35.9 | 97% | 85% | 58% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 25.2 | 21.4 to 29.1 | 15.6 to 34.8 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.1 | 13.4 to 31.5 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 89% | 62% | 28% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 74% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 17.9 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Henry | INT | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |