AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v St Kilda
Sat 2 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 1
STK to win, 51% chance
CAR 49%51% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 38.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 97 | 81 to 112 | 59 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 62% | 45% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 131 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 48 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Zac Williams | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Harry McKay | FPR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Adam Saad | BPR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 57 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 69 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 105 | 90 to 121 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 96 | 80 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 43% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 95 | 79 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Max Hall | C | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |