AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v St Kilda
Sat 2 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 1
STK to win, 51% chance
CAR 49%51% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 38.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 42% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Saad | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 71% | 43% | 18% | 5% | 1% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 65% | 33% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |