AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v St Kilda
Sat 2 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 1
STK to win, 51% chance
CAR 49%51% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 38.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.7 to 12.3 | 87% | 79% | 69% | 56% | 43% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.4 to 11.7 | 85% | 76% | 64% | 50% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harry McKay | FPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 30% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.1 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Saad | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.9 to 17.9 | 98% | 96% | 94% | 90% | 85% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.8 | 85% | 76% | 64% | 51% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 31% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 70% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 69% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Liam Henry | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |