AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v St Kilda
Sat 2 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 1
STK to win, 51% chance
CAR 49%51% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 39
HIT Actual margin 39 · 38.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.8 to 9.8 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.2 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Saad | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.3 to 8.7 | 79% | 65% | 50% | 34% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dougal Howard | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |