AFL · ROUND 8 · MCG
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 4
HAW to win, 56% chance
COL 44%56% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 4.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | RR | 33.5 | 29.1 to 38.0 | 22.5 to 44.5 | 100% | 98% | 90% | 70% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.4 | 17.4 to 37.3 | 98% | 89% | 65% | 33% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.1 to 31.0 | 90% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.2 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.5 | 83% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.7 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 53% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 14.7 | 11.8 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oscar Steene | FPR | 9.3 | 7.0 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFR | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.2 to 35.6 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.8 to 30.5 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 20.0 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.1 to 28.0 | 81% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFL | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.7 to 27.5 | 79% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 65% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.6 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.5 | 2.7 to 13.9 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |