AFL · ROUND 8 · MCG
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 4
HAW to win, 56% chance
COL 44%56% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 4.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | RR | 115 | 99 to 132 | 75 to 156 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 73% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 124 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 101 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 139 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Ned Long | C | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Oscar Steene | FPR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| William Hayes | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 58 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 81 | 66 to 95 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 65% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Josh Ward | R | 78 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | HBFL | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 62 | 48 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |