AFL · ROUND 8 · MCG
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 4
HAW to win, 56% chance
COL 44%56% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 4.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 42% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 68% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 57% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 79% | 56% | 31% | 13% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |