AFL · ROUND 8 · MCG
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 4
HAW to win, 56% chance
COL 44%56% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 4.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 12.0 | 86% | 77% | 66% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.2 to 11.2 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.8 | 80% | 69% | 56% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Steene | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 86% | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.9 to 8.4 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |