AFL · ROUND 8 · MCG
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 4
HAW to win, 56% chance
COL 44%56% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 4.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 56% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | INT | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 75% | 62% | 48% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Calsher Dear | FF | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |