AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat 2 May 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 33
BRI to win, 86% chance
ESS 14%86% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 30.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 29.3 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 107 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.5 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 108 / inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.5 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 94 / outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Sam Durham | R | 18.7 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 18.6 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.8 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 13.2 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 121 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jade Gresham | FPL | 12.4 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 56 / outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 9.2 / outside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 9.0 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 28.9 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.8 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 121 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.0 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 22.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 21.4 / outside our 90% range: 32.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.2 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 20.3 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 18.5 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.2 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 61 / outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Ty Gallop | CHF | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 39 |