AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat 2 May 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 33
BRI to win, 86% chance
ESS 14%86% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 30.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 29.3 | 25.1 to 33.4 | 19.0 to 39.6 | 99% | 93% | 75% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.5 | 24.4 to 32.6 | 18.3 to 38.6 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 73% | 39% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.4 | 12.9 to 30.7 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.4 | 69% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 16.8 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jade Gresham | FPL | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 10.9 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.5 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.5 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 28.9 | 24.8 to 33.0 | 18.7 to 39.2 | 99% | 92% | 74% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.8 | 24.7 to 32.9 | 18.6 to 39.0 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.9 | 15.5 to 34.6 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.4 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 76% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHF | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |