AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat 2 May 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 33
BRI to win, 86% chance
ESS 14%86% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 30.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 107 | 91 to 123 | 67 to 146 | 94% | 87% | 76% | 61% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 121 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Sam Durham | R | 74 | 60 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jade Gresham | FPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 106 | 90 to 121 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 121 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 56 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 54 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ty Gallop | CHF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |