AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat 2 May 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 33
BRI to win, 86% chance
ESS 14%86% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 30.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.4 | 2.6 to 12.0 | 86% | 78% | 67% | 54% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.2 to 11.2 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 31% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jade Gresham | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.5 | 2.6 to 12.1 | 87% | 78% | 67% | 55% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 38% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.5 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 30% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.9 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.1 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |