AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat 2 May 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 33
BRI to win, 86% chance
ESS 14%86% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 64
HIT Actual margin 64 · 30.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.2 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 43% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jade Gresham | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Thomas Edwards | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.5 | 4.6 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 89% | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 57% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Curtin | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |