AFL · ROUND 8 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat 2 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 30
GEE to win, 84% chance
GEE 84%16% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 29.6 | 25.4 to 33.7 | 19.2 to 39.9 | 99% | 93% | 76% | 47% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 28.8 | 24.7 to 32.9 | 18.6 to 39.0 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.4 to 31.4 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 31.0 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.3 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.1 | 26.9 to 35.4 | 20.5 to 41.7 | 99% | 96% | 83% | 57% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.8 | 23.8 to 31.9 | 17.8 to 37.9 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 36% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.7 | 15.4 to 34.4 | 96% | 80% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Powell | INT | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.7 to 27.4 | 78% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.5 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 11.1 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.4 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |