AFL · ROUND 8 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat 2 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 30
GEE to win, 84% chance
GEE 84%16% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 112 | 96 to 128 | 72 to 152 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 69% | 54% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Max Holmes | R | 106 | 90 to 122 | 67 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 75% | 60% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 84 | 69 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| James Worpel | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 74 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 107 | 91 to 123 | 67 to 146 | 94% | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 101 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 139 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 53 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | - |
| Tom Powell | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |