AFL · ROUND 8 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat 2 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 30
GEE to win, 84% chance
GEE 84%16% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.5 | 80% | 58% | 34% | 14% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 59% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 72% | 45% | 20% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Powell | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |