AFL · ROUND 8 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat 2 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 30
GEE to win, 84% chance
GEE 84%16% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 81% | 70% | 56% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.9 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 20% | - |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 75% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.6 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.5 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Powell | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |