AFL · ROUND 8 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat 2 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 30
GEE to win, 84% chance
GEE 84%16% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.5 to 11.2 | 90% | 83% | 73% | 61% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 88% | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.3 to 8.7 | 79% | 66% | 50% | 35% | 21% | - |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Powell | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |