AFL · ROUND 8 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Sun 3 May 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 14
GCS to win, 69% chance
GCS 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 5.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 26.5 | 22.6 to 30.4 | 16.7 to 36.3 | 97% | 86% | 60% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.2 | 15.8 to 35.0 | 96% | 82% | 52% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.2 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Alex Davies | R | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 15.2 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.8 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 9.5 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.5 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 27.9 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 27.9 | 23.9 to 31.9 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 27.7 | 23.7 to 31.8 | 17.7 to 37.8 | 98% | 90% | 67% | 36% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.4 | 17.4 to 37.4 | 98% | 89% | 65% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.5 | 3.3 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPR | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |