AFL · ROUND 8 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Sun 3 May 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 14
GCS to win, 69% chance
GCS 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 5.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 93 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| John Noble | INT | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 144 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Alex Davies | R | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | INT | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ben King | FF | 51 | 38 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 72% | 57% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 86 | 72 to 101 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| James Leake | INT | 56 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |