AFL · ROUND 8 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Sun 3 May 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 14
GCS to win, 69% chance
GCS 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 5.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 77% | 52% | 27% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | INT | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 40% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 61% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Davies | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Hogan | FPR | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 42% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 64% | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |