AFL · ROUND 8 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Sun 3 May 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 14
GCS to win, 69% chance
GCS 69%31% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 5.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies | R | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 79% | 66% | 50% | 35% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 72% | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.7 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 48% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |