AFL · ROUND 8 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun 3 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 27
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 10.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.0 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.5 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.5 | 13.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.1 | 13.4 to 31.5 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.9 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 90% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 25.0 | 21.1 to 28.8 | 15.4 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.0 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Kade Chandler | WL | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | CHB | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Harry Sharp | FPL | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HBFL | 10.9 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.4 | 2.6 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |