AFL · ROUND 8 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun 3 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 27
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 10.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 109 | 93 to 125 | 69 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 48% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 82% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Chad Warner | C | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 64% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 72 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 54 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Jack Steele | C | 98 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 137 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 47% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 97 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Kade Chandler | WL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Harry Sharp | FPL | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tom Sparrow | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Paddy Cross | HBFL | 56 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Max Heath | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |