AFL · ROUND 8 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun 3 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 27
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 10.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 74% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 69% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 57% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 38% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 63% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |