AFL · ROUND 8 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun 3 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 27
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 10.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.5 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 38% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 26% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 69% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 63% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.9 to 8.4 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 86% | 77% | 66% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |