AFL · ROUND 8 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun 3 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 27
SYD to win, 82% chance
SYD 82%18% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 10.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | INT | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 90% | 83% | 72% | 60% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 68% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | C | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.2 | 87% | 78% | 65% | 51% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | CHB | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kade Chandler | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | RR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |