AFL · ROUND 8 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Richmond
Sat 2 May 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 58% chance
WCE 58%42% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | R | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 22.4 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 91% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 76% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.3 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.5 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | R | 25.6 | 21.7 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.2 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 22.7 | 19.0 to 26.3 | 13.6 to 31.7 | 92% | 68% | 34% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.3 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 31.0 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | FF | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPR | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.5 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.3 | 3.2 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |