AFL · ROUND 8 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Richmond
Sat 2 May 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 58% chance
WCE 58%42% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 83% | 73% | 61% | 47% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.2 | 76% | 64% | 49% | 35% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.3 | 70% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.3 to 11.4 | 84% | 74% | 61% | 48% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | FF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |