AFL · ROUND 8 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Richmond
Sat 2 May 2026, 2:15pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 58% chance
WCE 58%42% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 11
MISS Actual margin 11 · 17.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.2 to 8.5 | 77% | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 52% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Baker | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Schoenberg | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Owies | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dion Prestia | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan Broad | HBFL | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPR | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPR | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |