AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 54% chance
WB 54%46% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.0 | 23.1 to 31.0 | 17.1 to 36.9 | 98% | 88% | 63% | 31% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 26.3 | 22.4 to 30.2 | 16.5 to 36.1 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 27% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 25.6 | 21.8 to 29.5 | 16.0 to 35.3 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.8 | 15.4 to 34.4 | 96% | 80% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 23.1 | 19.4 to 26.8 | 13.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.1 to 29.6 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 18.8 | 15.4 to 22.1 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 16.8 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.7 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | HBFL | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 10.4 | 7.8 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.2 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 2.9 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 27.6 | 23.6 to 31.7 | 17.6 to 37.7 | 98% | 89% | 67% | 35% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.8 | 15.4 to 34.4 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.2 | 20.4 to 28.0 | 14.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.8 | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 74% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 17.7 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 57% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 11.6 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 9.7 | 7.3 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.4 | 5.3 to 9.5 | 2.1 to 12.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |