AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 54% chance
WB 54%46% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim English | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 55% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 101 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Ed Richards | R | 100 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 139 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 100 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 139 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 50% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 81 | 66 to 95 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harvey Gallagher | HBFL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | HFFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 95 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |