AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 54% chance
WB 54%46% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 71% | 43% | 18% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 49% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |