AFL · ROUND 8 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Fri 1 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 3
WB to win, 54% chance
WB 54%46% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 14.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 79% | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.2 to 8.5 | 77% | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laitham Vandermeer | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Louis Emmett | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.2 | 87% | 77% | 65% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 76% | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |