AFL · ROUND 9 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 40
BRI to win, 91% chance
BRI 91%9% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 29.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 30.3 | 26.1 to 34.5 | 19.8 to 40.8 | 99% | 95% | 80% | 52% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.6 | 24.5 to 32.7 | 18.4 to 38.8 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 41% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.3 | 21.5 to 29.2 | 15.7 to 34.9 | 96% | 82% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.4 | 12.9 to 30.7 | 89% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.8 | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.8 | 11.9 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.8 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.4 | 25.3 to 33.5 | 19.1 to 39.7 | 99% | 93% | 76% | 46% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.2 to 35.6 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 25.6 | 21.8 to 29.5 | 16.0 to 35.3 | 96% | 83% | 54% | 23% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 25.1 | 21.3 to 28.9 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.1 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.4 to 30.1 | 88% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.7 to 27.4 | 79% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.1 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 76% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.7 | 6.7 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.5 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |