AFL · ROUND 9 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 40
BRI to win, 91% chance
BRI 91%9% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 29.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 90 | 75 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 74 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 103 | 87 to 118 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 97 | 82 to 112 | 59 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| George Hewett | RR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 74 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |