AFL · ROUND 9 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 40
BRI to win, 91% chance
BRI 91%9% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 29.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 30.3 / inside our 50% range: 33.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 101 / inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.6 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 106 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.3 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.3 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 21.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.0 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.4 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.4 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 8.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 66 / outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.0 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.5 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 64 / outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.8 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 8.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / outside our 90% range: 15 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.4 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.9 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| George Hewett | RR | 25.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 25.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.7 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 23.3 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 21.2 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 81 / outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 18.7 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 18.5 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 16.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 15.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 13.5 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.7 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.7 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 32 |