AFL · ROUND 9 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 40
BRI to win, 91% chance
BRI 91%9% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 11
HIT Actual margin 11 · 29.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.8 to 9.9 | 85% | 75% | 62% | 48% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darragh Joyce | INT | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.2 | 82% | 70% | 56% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Adam Cerra | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Florent | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |