AFL · ROUND 9 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 7 May 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 55% chance
FRE 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.7 | 16.1 to 35.5 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.5 | 15.2 to 34.2 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.6 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.3 to 32.9 | 94% | 74% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 17.7 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.7 | 9.4 to 25.5 | 69% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 1.9 to 12.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.6 | 16.8 to 36.5 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 23.9 | 20.2 to 27.7 | 14.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 21.3 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.4 to 30.1 | 88% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.0 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.0 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.8 to 27.5 | 79% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 12.6 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFL | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Ramsden | CHF | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.4 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |