AFL · ROUND 9 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 7 May 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 55% chance
FRE 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 71% | 55% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 92 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 83 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Josh Ward | R | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Max Ramsden | CHF | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 47 | 34 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |