AFL · ROUND 9 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 7 May 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 55% chance
FRE 55%45% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 11.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 2.4 to 11.8 | 85% | 76% | 64% | 51% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hayden Young | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.4 to 11.7 | 85% | 75% | 64% | 50% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Battle | CHB | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.2 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 81% | 71% | 57% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Gunston | HFFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.1 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Ramsden | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor Nash | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Reeves | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |